Rapid range expansion predicted for the Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula) in the near future under climate change scenarios
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Background Climate change due to anthropogenic global warming is the most important factor that will affect future range distribution of species and shape biogeographic patterns. While much effort has been expended in understanding how climate rare declining we have less an likely consequences for some abundant species. The Common Grackle ( Quiscalus quiscula ; Linnaeus 1758), though portions its range, a widespread blackbird (Icteridae) North America east Rocky Mountains. This study examined might Grackles. Methods We used R package Wallace six general models (ACCESS1-0, BCC-CSM1-1, CESM1-CAM5-1-FV2, CNRM-CM5, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR) available (2070) identify climatically suitable areas, with ecological niche modelling approach includes use environmental conditions. Results Future projections suggested significant expansion from current into northern parts Alaska, even under more optimistic scenarios. Additionally, there evidence possible colonization islands Caribbean as well coastal regions eastern Central America. bioclimatic variables model predictions were Annual Mean Temperature, Temperature Seasonality, Wettest Quarter Precipitation. Conclusions results suggest could continue expand over next 50 years. research helping us understand patterns widespread, common bird
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Avian research
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['2053-7166']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40657-021-00285-2